分类
到底该怎么用期权赚钱

股票市场行情分析

2013/1/9星期三到1/11星期五三天的5分钟走势

The main content of fundamental analysis

The so-called fundamentals refer to the status of some basic factors that affect the trend of the stock 股票市场行情分析 market. Through the analysis of the fundamentals, the basic factors that determine the changes in stock prices can be grasped, which is the basis 股票市场行情分析 of stock investment analysis.

Fundamental factors mainly include:

1. Macroeconomic conditions

From along-term and fundamental point of view, the trend and changes of the stock market are determined by the level of economic development and economic prosperity of a country. Stock market price fluctuations also reflect changes in macroeconomic conditions to a large extent. It is not difficult to find from the historical trend of foreign stock markets that the trend of stock market changes generally coincides with the economic cycle. During the economic boom, companies are operating well, making more profits, 股票市场行情分析 and their stock prices are rising. When the economy is in a recession, the decline in corporate income and the decline in profits will also cause its stock prices to continue to fall. However, the trend of the stock market and the economic cycle are not the same in terms of time. Generally, the changes in the stock market must be advanced to a certain extent, so the stock market price is called a barometer of the macro economy.

2. Interest rate level

Among the many factors that affect the trend of the stock market, interest rates are a 股票市场行情分析 relatively sensitive factor. Rising interest rates may attract part of the funds to the bank savings system, thereby 股票市场行情分析 feeding the amount of funds in the stock market and having a certain impact on stock prices. At the same time, due to rising 股票市场行情分析 interest rates, business operating costs will increase, and profits will decrease, which will correspondingly cause stock prices to fall. Conversely, if interest rates are lowered, 股票市场行情分析 people may invest more funds in the stock market due to their inherent need to maintain and increase their value, thereby stimulating stock prices. At the same time, due to lower interest rates, lower operating costs 股票市场行情分析 of enterprises and increased profits have 股票市场行情分析 also contributed to rising stock prices.

3. Inflation

This factor has pros and cons to the stock market. It has the effect of stimulating the market and depressing the market. However, in general, it does more harm than good, and it will increase the 股票市场行情分析 bubble component of the stock market. In the initial stage of inflation, the increase in currency will stimulate production and consumption, and the growth rate will increase the profitability of 股票市场行情分析 enterprises, which will promote the rise of stock prices. However, when inflation reaches a certain level, it will push interest rates up, which will cause stock prices to fall.

4. Enterprise quality

For specific individual stocks, the main factor that affects the price level is the inherent quality of the company itself, including a series of factors such as financial status, operating conditions, management level, technical capabilities, marketsize, industry characteristics, and development potential.

5. Political factors

Refers to political reasons that directly or indirectly affect the stock market, such as the international political situation, political events, relations between countries, changes in important political leaders, etc., which will have a huge and sudden impact on stock prices. This is also an important aspect that should be considered in the fundamentals.

5种重要的股票图表型态

​图表型态分析是技术分析(technical analysis)的一部份,它能帮助交易员预测市场的未来走向,同时根据历史价格数据判断趋势是否会逆转。常见的图表型态包括三角形(triangle)、双顶和双底(double tops/bottoms)、头肩型(head and shoulders)、旗形(flag)、三角旗形(pennant)和楔形(wedge)。一些交易员会先进行基本面分析,然后参考价格图表,从而判断该买什么以及何时买入。一些交易员则完全根据图表上的讯号来做决定。

CMC Markets

CMC Markets

趋势线及突破

CMC Markets

CMC Markets

对称三角形

上升三角形

下跌三角形

CMC Markets

CMC Markets Trading app

CMC Markets Trading app

投资衍生品具有很大风险,并不适用于所有投资者。您并不拥有标的资产及其相关权益。我们建议您征询独立顾问的意见,确保您在交易前完全了解可能涉及的风险。本网站仅提供一般性信息,并没有考虑到您特定的目标,需求及财务状况。因此,在您决定交易或继续持有任何衍生品产品时,您应当结合您的个人目标,需求和财务状况进行考量。对于我们的服务和任何收费,所有细节都包含在我们的金融服务指南中,您同样可以通过以上渠道获取我们的金融服务指南。我们的CFD目标市场确认函对我们的金融产品适用人群有详细描述。在您决定交易或继续持有任何金融产品前,请务必阅读我们的产品披露声明、信息备忘录(适用于CMC Pro用户)和其他相关文件。所有的这些文件均可在cmcmarkets.com.au上获得。CMC Markets Asia Pacific Pty Ltd (ACN 100 058 213), AFSL No. 238054, the CFD issuer。

Apple, iPad, 和 iPhone 是苹果公司(Apple Inc.)在美国和其他国家的注册商标。App Store是苹果公司(Apple Inc)的服务商标. Android是谷歌公司(Google Inc.)的注册商标。

股票市场行情分析

道氏理论中的时间要素

自从股票市场诞生的那一天起,一些股市实践家们就敏锐地意识到:股市的运行规律是由价格、成交量和时间等多个因素共同驱动的。在早期的道氏理论中,Charles Henry Dow将股市运行划分为三个趋势的同时就明确总结了每个趋势持续的时间要素,如:

股市基本趋势:通常持续一年以上时间,有时长达好几年。

次级趋势:通常持续三周到几个月时间,但很少比这个更持久;判断中等回调(或反弹)趋势的依据有两个要素:持续的时间和回调/反弹的幅度(通常回撤1/3-2/3,少数情况也会完全回撤)。

小型趋势:短暂的价格波动,通常少于六天,很少超过三周。

‘3日突破有效’原则

多头陷阱:股价处于上升过程中,但是在一个窄幅箱体或通道内已经整理运行了10-15天,随后股价冲破阻力位置,价格收盘于区间上沿。此时突破当日的最低价成为关键点,如果股价在其后的1-3天内又重新被拉回到该价位下方,很可能为假突破。

空头陷阱: 同上相反,如果向下突破后1-3天股价重回突破日最高价的上方,市场可能出现反转。

在Robert D. Edwards等人合著的《股市趋势技术分析》一书中,该原则同时也被用作识别和确认突破后的止损设置原则,即‘3日脱离止损’原则:保护性止损应设置在突破区间上沿下方几个点的位置。

菲波纳契时间数序列

1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233.,377. 。

2,1,3,4,7,11,18,29,47,76,123,199,322. 。

标普500指数近期走势图

标普500指数近期走势图

FB在2012Q2季报公布后放量跳空大跌后的股价

FB在2012Q2季报公布后放量跳空大跌后的股价

标普500指数近半年来的日线图

标普500指数近半年来的日线图

2013/1/9星期三到1/11星期五三天的5分钟走势

2013/1/9星期三到1/11星期五三天的5分钟走势

1/17的走势图

有关美股表现出的季节性效应,我曾经在新浪(63.77, -1.42, -2.18%)美股专栏专门发文进行过总结,其中包括如年底Tax Selling、季末Windows Dressing、重大节假日效应、The Worst September效应、January Effect等对交易策略的影响,此处不再细述。有兴趣的朋友可查看我之前的专栏文章《美股季节性效应及交易策略》。